Growth plan for Porter Road, 5 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Porter Road already sells a $75.00 Perfectly Imperfect Bundle and 15% off every subscription order. The plan tests many ads on those offers, kills losers early and protects one number: a $20.64 target CAC under a $34.40 ceiling.
- Target CAC
- $20.64
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: a $20.64 target CAC
The one number to protect is a $20.64 target CAC. It is 0.6 of a $34.40 ceiling built from a $43 average order, 40% margin and one repeat order. Every test is judged against it, and spend scales only while it holds.
Protect
Target CAC: $20.64 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $43 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $34.40. Guard line = 0.6 × $34.40 = $20.64. Across the ranges: $4.20 to $2,284.20.
Three moves
- Kill any ad that crosses the guard line early, then move its budget to the next test.
- Report daily CAC against $20.64 so spend decisions never wait on a meeting.
- Raise spend only on winners that hold, with the 15% subscribe offer tested next to a la carte.
- reviews shown on the page
- 10,476
- Published
- off every order when you subscribe
- 15%
- Published
- per lb on The Perfectly Imperfect Bundle
- $7.50
- Published
02 Variety
Every Porter Road ad carries a cut, a price and a reason
Each ad concept has to carry one cut or bundle, one price or offer, and one reason to act. A Family Bundle ad can lead with $215.00 against $270.00, a Grilling Heroes Box ad with the grill, a Holiday Turkey Box ad with the table. One variable per test.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Raised right | No hormones No antibiotics Pasture-raised | 4 |
| Dry aged for flavor | All of our beef is dry aged for maximum flavor! | 4 |
| Subscribe and save | Save 15% on every order when you subscribe. | 3 |
| Free shipping nationwide | New: Free Shipping Nationwide | 2 |
| Family-size value | This bundle contains $270 of product value and provides approximately 68 servings. | 2 |
| Own Kentucky facility | dry aging and hand-cutting it at our own facility in Kentucky | 2 |
| Review count | 10,476 reviews | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, from Sitka shipping times to thin proof
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sitka seafood ships separately and may take up to 10 business days, so ads can promise too much | Med | Med | Both | Seafood ads run only once the shipping window sits in the ad and on its landing page |
| Bachan's, FOGO and Kosterina add-ons ship separately, which can sour a first order | Med | Med | Your team | Add-on shipping is named on each landing page before any add-on ad runs |
| Event tracking is incomplete, so CAC readings drift from real orders | High | High | Your team | Daily CAC reconciles to store orders before any week two spend |
| Creators miss the posting rhythm, so fewer than 10 are live by week six | Med | High | Me | Two creators join each week; a week with fewer pauses new landing pages |
| Ad concepts repeat and the hook library thins before week six | Med | Med | Me | No concept re-runs unless it already beat the $20.64 guard line |
| Health wording drifts past what Porter Road publishes about hormones and antibiotics | Low | High | Both | Every claim ties to a line on the claims sheet before it goes live |
| Repeat orders come in below the one the ceiling counts on, so $34.40 is too high | Med | High | Both | Week one cohort data replaces the ceiling input before spend scales past week three |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The $34.40 ceiling starts as a guess and week one fixes it
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $43 (range $8.00–$1,692.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $34.40 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $20.64 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $43 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $34.40. Guard line = 0.6 × $34.40 = $20.64. Across the ranges: $4.20 to $2,284.20.
Range across the assumptions: $4 to $2,284.
The $43 order, the 40% margin and one repeat order are guesses. The formula is fixed: $43 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $34.40. Week one replaces the guesses with your real order data.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests, $24,000 in total, ramped week by week
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $21 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $21 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $21 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $21 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $21 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $21 |
Week 1 and week 2 run 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Weeks 3 and 4 run 12–20 ads, $4,000 a week. Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads, $5,000 a week. Total $24,000 of tests, Proposed. Losers die early; winners get the budget.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
More concepts mean more winners, and winners earn more spend
20 concepts give 2 winners and $18,000 added a month; 80 concepts give 8 winners and $72,000. Assumption: hit rate and spend per winner. More concepts is how CAC stays under $20.64.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
The $100,000 is split so tests never starve winners
- Test ads across cuts, bundles and subscribe offers
- $40,000
- 40%
- Scaling proven winners on Meta
- $35,000
- 35%
- Creator content, pay and bonuses
- $15,000
- 15%
- Reserve for new channels once Meta earns it
- $10,000
- 10%
Shares of the $100,000 Proposed budget. The scale share moves only when winners hold under $20.64.
The math. 40% × $100,000 = $40,000; 35% × $100,000 = $35,000; 15% × $100,000 = $15,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta leads; four more channels open only when Meta earns it
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week 1, with 12 ads live | Fastest place to test the 15% subscribe offer against bundles like the Family Bundle |
| TikTok | Once creator videos beat the $20.64 guard line on Meta | Creator videos shot for Meta can run here with no new shoot |
| YouTube Shorts | After the hook library has winners to reuse | A $29.00 Tomahawk Pork Chop cook-along suits a short vertical video |
| Google Search | When branded searches appear in the daily report | Shoppers who see a Meta ad will search Butcher's Choice boxes by name |
| Only if the Holiday Turkey Box needs reach beyond Meta | Holiday hosts plan tables ahead and save ideas for ham and turkey |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback decides how fast we scale, not the ad dashboard
Payback is the real constraint. At CAC $10 the first order pays back with $24.40 left. At $20 it pays only after repeat orders, $14.40 left. At $40 and $50 it never does: stop, with −$5.60 and −$15.60 left. The 15% subscribe discount has to clear this too.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $17.20, $34.40.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 | $17.20 | $34.40 | $24.40 | First order |
| $20 | $17.20 | $34.40 | $14.40 | After repeat orders |
| $40 | $17.20 | $34.40 | −$5.60 | Never: stop |
| $50 | $17.20 | $34.40 | −$15.60 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $10: $34.40 − $10 = $24.40 left; pays back: First order; CAC $20: $34.40 − $20 = $14.40 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $40: $34.40 − $40 = −$5.60 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $50: $34.40 − $50 = −$15.60 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
What I cover on Porter Road, and what stays with your team
Covers
- Meta strategy and weekly experiments on Porter Road cuts, bundles and subscriptions
- Creator recruiting, briefs and pay structure for 10 creators by week six
- Hook library and a claims sheet built from your own site wording
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings and monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Event tracking build: I spec it, your team implements it
- Fulfillment and the shipping terms of Sitka and add-on partners
- Product, pricing and margin decisions
- Your ad account history: I haven't seen it
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Daily CAC reads reliably and at least one concept sits under the $20.64 guard line | Tracking cannot reconcile to store orders by this gate |
| Day 30 | Creators live match the ramp and winners hold under $20.64 as spend rises | Blended CAC sits above $34.40 after the test spend |
| Day 60 | Cohort payback tracks the ceiling, with repeat orders in line with the one it counts on | CAC settles at $40 or above with no winner left to scale |
| Day 90 | Spend has scaled and CAC holds at or under $20.64, with payback after repeat orders at worst | Payback never arrives at current CAC: $40 or above |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | A catalog from $9.00 cornmeal to a $460.00 XL Rib Roast | A hook library built on one variable per test | 1st |
| creators | Grilling Heroes Box at $119.00, Family Bundle at $215.00 | A roster of 10 creators by week six | 2nd |
| claims sheet | Site wording: pasture-raised, dry aged beef | One sheet that limits ads to that wording | Week 1 |
| landing pages | 15% subscribe offer and free shipping on $125+ orders | Pages matched to each ad hook; 9 live by week six | 2nd |
| reporting | Two order types: a la carte and subscribe-and-save at 15% off | Daily CAC, with event tracking your team specs | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 10,476 reviews shown on the page | https://porterroad.com/pages/reviews | Fact |
| 15% off every order when you subscribe | https://porterroad.com/pages/build-your-own-box | Fact |
| $7.50 per lb on The Perfectly Imperfect Bundle | https://porterroad.com/products/perfectly_imperfect | Fact |
| Product prices $8.00–$1,692.00 | product prices in the site product data (158 products), read 2026-10-06 | Fact |
| $43 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $20.64 target CAC | 0.6 of the $34.40 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $34.40 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 40% / 35% / 15% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I build the claims sheet from your site wording, spec the order events with your team and launch 12 ads, $3,000 of tests, on the Perfectly Imperfect Bundle, Family Bundle and the 15% subscribe offer. Creator recruiting starts; daily CAC starts.
